A Constitutional Obligation to Count All Persons
Jan Plotczyk • September 1, 2020
The U.S. Census Bureau recently announced
that it will end the collection of 2020 Census data a month earlier than planned, on September 30 rather than October 31. The count had been extended because of the coronavirus, but now the deadline has been pulled back. This last-minute change to the closing date threatens the accuracy of the census, which will in turn affect political representation and federal funding for the next 10 years.
The census determines the distribution of more than $1.5 trillion in federal funds, grants, loans and loan guarantees, and support to states, counties, and communities. It is estimated that over a 10-year period, communities lose an estimated $18,250 for each person who is not counted in the census. House of Representatives districts are apportioned based on the decennial census. There’s a lot riding on this undertaking.
To get as complete a count as possible, the Census Bureau depends on the work of census takers. These employees are in the field now, following up on people who have not returned their form or completed it online or by phone. Now they will have less time to finish. And with covid-19 a major concern, many census takers have quit or failed to show up, leaving more work for fewer workers and more doubt that there will be an accurate tally by the end of September.
It has always been difficult to get a complete count, especially among historically undercounted groups such as racial and ethnic minorities, undocumented immigrants, people who are low-income or homeless, and people with limited English. It’s up to the census takers to persuade reluctant residents to give up their information to the government. Under the current administration, this can be a hard sell, especially for undocumented immigrants.
An undercount of people of color and lower income people will tip political representation and federal aid away from these populations.
Census counting usually wraps up at the end of July in order to meet the statutory December 31 date to report the population counts to the president. Last spring, the bureau asked Congress to postpone that deadline to April 30, 2021 to ensure the “completeness and accuracy of the 2020 Census.” The coronavirus relief bill passed by the House of Representatives in May (the HEROES Act) includes a provision to extend that date as requested, but the Senate has not acted on that bill or this issue. The bureau will find it hard to make the December 31 deadline, even with a September 30 end to counting, trying to squeeze five months of data checking and processing work into three.
President Trump supported the extension of the census collection dates into the fall when that was proposed last spring, but has apparently changed his mind; it’s not certain that he will be in office at the end of April, so he wants the results delivered to him at the end of December.
In the chart above we can get a sense of the importance of the work of census takers:
- The blue bars represent the current 2020 self-response rate for each county. Self-response includes mail, online, and phone responses initiated by the person being counted.
- The yellow bars represent the 2010 census total response rate. Total response includes self-responses and responses collected by census takers.
- The difference between the blue and yellow bars is pretty much the amount of work the census takers need to do in order to equal the response rates from 2010.
In 2010, the work that census takers did made a big difference to Eastern Shore counties — response rates in most counties were increased by anywhere from 6 percent to 15 percent.
As of August 27, the national response rate was 80.1 percent; 15.4 percent is due to census workers. The Maryland rate was 85.4 percent; 16.3 percent is due to census workers. Total response rates by county are not yet available.
The bureau also announced that it will act on Trump’s constitutionally questionable memorandum to exclude undocumented immigrants from the final enumeration for the purpose of congressional apportionment.
The result of this maneuver would be to reapportion the 435 House seats to benefit states with lower undocumented populations (such as Alabama), and harm states with higher undocumented populations (such as California). This scheme is only the latest by the administration to manipulate the census to its benefit.
The Constitution, however, is clear that the census must count “the whole number of persons in each State” (14th Amendment, Section 2). Lawsuits have already been filed to prevent undocumented immigrants from being eliminated from the state population counts for apportionment.
It is clear that the Trump administration does not want a complete census count. It seems doubtful that Congress will quickly pass an extension for the 2020 Census to prevent a fiasco that will have lasting consequences. The courts may have to deal with the fallout.
(If YOU haven’t responded yet, go to https://my2020census.gov/.)
Self-Response Rates – 2020 Census:
NOTE: Officials in Worcester County attribute that county’slow response rate to the large number of vacation homes in the Ocean City area.The Maryland Department of Planning applies an adjustment of about 29.1 percent tooffset these unoccupied dwelling units, which brings Worcester’s response rateup to 61.3 percent. The 2010 final response rate for the county adjusted forunoccupied dwelling units.
2020 Census Self-Response Rates
2010 Census Participation Rates
State by State Total Response Rates
Maryland Census Response at a Glance
Jan Plotczyk spent 25years as a statistician with the federal government, at the Census Bureau andthe National Center for Education Statistics. She retired to Rock Hall.
Common Sense for the Eastern Shore
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
Apparently, some people think that the GOP’s “big beautiful bill” is a foregone conclusion, and that the struggle over the budget and Trump’s agenda is over and done. Not true. On Sunday night, the bill — given the alternate name “Big Bad Bullsh*t Bill” by the Democratic Women’s Caucus — was voted out of the House Budget Committee. The GOP plan is to pass this legislation in the House before Memorial Day. But that’s not the end of it. As Jessica Craven explained in her Chop Wood Carry Water column: “Remember, we have at least six weeks left in this process. The bill has to: Pass the House, Then head to the Senate where it will likely be rewritten almost completely, Then be passed there, Then be brought back to the House for reconciliation, And then, if the House changes that version at all, Go back to the Senate for another vote.” She adds, “Every step of that process is a place for us to kill it.” The bill is over a thousand pages long, and the American people will not get a chance to read it until it has passed the House. But, thanks to 5Calls , we know it includes:
Let's talk about our Eastern Shore Delegation, the representatives who are supposed to fight for our nine Shore counties in Annapolis, and what they actually got up to this session.
For the first time in recent memory, Virginia Democrats have candidates running in all 100 House of Delegates districts — a milestone party leaders and grassroots organizers say reflects rising momentum as President Donald Trump’s second term continues to galvanize opposition.
The 447th legislative session of the Maryland General Assembly adjourned on April 8. This End of Session Report highlights the work Shore Progress has done to fight for working families and bring real results home to the Shore. Over the 90-day session, lawmakers debated 1,901 bills and passed 878 into law. Shore Progress and members supported legislation that delivers for the Eastern Shore, protecting our environment, expanding access to housing and healthcare, strengthening workers’ rights, and more. Shore Progress Supported Legislation By The Numbers: Over 60 pieces of our backed legislation were passed. Another 15 passed in one Chamber but not the other. Legislation details are below, past the budget section. The 2026 Maryland State Budget How We Got Here: Maryland’s budget problems didn’t start overnight. They began under Governor Larry Hogan. Governor Hogan expanded the state budget yearly but blocked the legislature from moving money around or making common-sense changes. Instead of fixing the structural issues, Hogan used federal covid relief funds to hide the cracks and drained our state’s savings from $5.5 billion to $2.3 billion to boost his image before leaving office. How Trump/Musk Made It Worse: Maryland is facing a new fiscal crisis driven by the Trump–Musk administration, whose trade wars, tariff policies, and deep federal cuts have hit us harder than most, costing the state over 30,000 jobs, shuttering offices, and erasing promised investments. A University of Maryland study estimates Trump’s tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion, and those federal cuts have already added $300 million to our budget deficit. Covid aid gave us a short-term boost and even created a fake surplus under Hogan, but that money is gone, while housing, healthcare, and college prices keep rising. The Trump–Musk White House is only making things worse by slashing funding, gutting services, and eliminating research that Marylanders rely on. How The State Budget Fixes These Issues: This year, Maryland faced a $3 billion budget gap, and the General Assembly fixed it with a smart mix of cuts and fair new revenue, while protecting working families, schools, and health care. The 2025 Budget cuts $1.9 billion ($400 million less than last year) without gutting services people rely on. The General Assembly raised $1.2 billion in fair new revenue, mostly from the wealthiest Marylanders. The Budget ended with a $350 million surplus, plus $2.4 billion saved in the Rainy Day Fund (more than 9% of general fund revenue), which came in $7 million above what the Spending Affordability Committee called for. The budget protects funding for our schools, health care, transit, and public workers. The budget delivers real wins: $800 million more annually for transit and infrastructure, plus $500 million for long-term transportation needs. It invests $9.7 billion in public schools and boosts local education aid by $572.5 million, a 7% increase. If current revenue trends hold, no new taxes will be needed next session. Even better, 94% of Marylanders will see a tax cut or no change, while only the wealthiest 5% will finally pay their fair share. The tax system is smarter now. We’re: Taxing IT and data services like Texas and D.C. do; Raising taxes on cannabis and sports betting, not groceries or medicine; and Letting counties adjust income taxes. The budget also restores critical funding: $122 million for teacher planning $15 million for cancer research $11 million for crime victims $7 million for local business zones, and Continued support for public TV, the arts, and BCCC The budget invests in People with disabilities, with $181 million in services Growing private-sector jobs with $139 million in funding, including $27.5 million for quantum tech, $16 million for the Sunny Day Fund, and $10 million for infrastructure loans. Health care is protected for 1.5 million Marylanders, with $15.6 billion for Medicaid and higher provider pay. Public safety is getting a boost too, with $60 million for victim services, $5.5 million for juvenile services, and $5 million for parole and probation staffing. This budget also tackles climate change with $100 million for clean energy and solar projects, and $200 million in potential ratepayer relief. Public workers get a well-deserved raise, with $200 million in salary increases, including a 1% COLA and ~2.5% raises for union workers. The ultra-wealthy will finally chip in to pay for it: People earning over $750,000 will pay more, Millionaires will pay 6.5%, and Capital gains over $350,000 get a 2% surcharge. Deductions are capped for high earners, but working families can still deduct student loans, medical debt, and donations. This budget is bold, fair, and built to last. That’s why Shore Progress proudly supports it. Click on the arrows below for details in each section.
