Election Surprises — A Bumper Crop

Peter Heck • August 13, 2024


Back in June, a Common Sense article on the importance of voting responsibly said, “Let’s look at the presidential race. The fact is that one of two men, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, the Democrat or the Republican — barring some unforeseen event — will be the next president of the United States.”

 

That phrase about unforeseen events was prophetic — though the part saying it will be the Democrat or the Republican who wins in November is probably still true. Probably.

 

We’ve had more than the usual quota of the unforeseen during the last two months. Politics is always subject to the unexpected, but this year seems to have produced a bumper crop of surprises.

 

First, a lacklusterdebate performance by Biden — caused in part by a severe cold — sent a wave of panic through Democratic elected officials and voters. The perception that 81-year-old Biden was “too old,” which was already being peddled by Republicans, took on strength — although their own candidate, at 78, is hardly a young man. After that debate, serious news outlets including the New York Times began calling for Biden to end his campaign.

 

Then, a 20-year-old sniper fired into the crowd at a Trump rally in Butler, Pa. — killing one and wounding several more, including the former president. The injury to Trump — a nick on the right ear — was a few inches from being a fatal head shot. A flood of speculation and conspiracy theories followed, fueled by the fact that the shooter, who was killed by police, was unavailable to provide hard facts about his motivation for the assassination attempt.

 

And then, just after the Republican National Convention came to an end, President Biden announced that he was ending his re-election campaign, and endorsed Vice president Kamala Harris to take the top spot in the Democratic ticket. The response by most Democrats was enthusiastic, while the Trump campaign, which had geared its strategy to attack Biden, was caught unprepared. What a surprise! After pushing the line that he was too old to run, they weren’t ready for him to take them at their word.

 

Following all these events, the election campaign we thought we were in store for in early June has been replaced by something quite different. After Biden’s withdrawal, the Republicans are faced with the question whether their own candidate is “too old to be president.” Trump’s rambling, nearly incoherent performances on the campaign trail haven’t made that question any easier for them to answer.

 

Harris’s background as a prosecuting attorney should give her the debating skills to take on her opponent far more energetically than Biden did in the June debate. Possibly in recognition of that fact, Trump at first refused to take part in the debate scheduled for September 10 on ABC News. Instead, he proposed a September 4 debate sponsored by Fox News, where he probably felt he can escape tough questions and fact-checking. Then, on August 8, he reversed course and agreed to the ABC debate, plus two more at unspecified dates. One wonders if his advisers convinced him that ducking out of a debate made him look like a “chicken” — something totally at odds with the image he has cultivated.

 

For her part, Harris has made it clear she wants to debate Trump, calling for him to “say it to my face” after some of his remarks, and she has said she is willing to debate Trump — in his words —  “anywhere, anytime, anyplace” in addition to the originally scheduled September 10 debate. 

 

Meanwhile, JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, probably seemed a safe choice when the prospective opponent was Biden. A Christian conservative, Vance seemed likely to shore up the Republican base in an election where a significant number of voters were unhappy with both presidential choices. Now, Vance’s record of outright sexist comments risks alienating a significant number of voters, especially the swing voters who are likely to be the deciding factor in a close election. Democrats are gleefully pointing out these gaffes. On the other hand, it’s not clear how many voters are comfortable — even in 2024 — with the idea of a woman president. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a surprise to many.

 

Harris’s choice for vice president is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a popular progressive from a midwestern state. A military veteran and a former high school teacher, Walz served six terms in Congress from a district that previously had elected only two Democratic representatives since before the Civil War. He is expected to add to the ticket’s appeal in neighboring rural states the Democrats need to win in November. Walz has been on the reported shortlist for the position since it became open, so his selection doesn’t qualify as a surprise.

 

That doesn’t rule out something unexpected, though. It wasn’t that long ago that John McCain and his advisers saw Sarah Palin as an asset to their ticket, though most commentators thought otherwise after the election. The 1972 Democratic ticket initially had Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton as George McGovern’s running mate, but he dropped out after the revelation that he was seeing a therapist for depression. Things have changed enough that this probably wouldn’t disqualify a candidate today.

 

With just over two months until the November 5 election, there’s still room for more surprises. In fact, the “October surprise” — some unanticipated last-minute revelation — has been a fairly regular feature of presidential elections as far back as October of 1840, when federal prosecutors charged Whig party officials with a scheme to have Pennsylvania residents illegally vote in New York state.

 

More recent examples include Lyndon Johnson’s announcement of a bombing halt in Vietnam the weekend before the 1968 election in an unsuccessful attempt to boost Hubert Humphrey’s candidacy, or the 2016 announcement by then-FBI Dir. James Comey that he was investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails. Who knows how much those October surprises affected the final results? And who knows what the respective campaigns may pull out of their sleeves by October of this year?

 

Still, the next president of the United States will be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, barring some unforeseen event. Stay tuned for the next big election surprise. It’s sure to come.

 

       

Peter Heck is a Chestertown-based writer and editor, who spent 10 years at the Kent County News and three more with the Chestertown Spy. He is the author of 10 novels and co-author of four plays, a book reviewer for Asimov’s and Kirkus Reviews, and an incorrigible guitarist.


Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By Friends of Megan Outten July 29, 2025
Megan Outten, a lifelong Wicomico County resident and former Salisbury City Councilwoman, officially announced her candidacy recently for Wicomico County Council, District 7. At 33, Outten brings the energy of a new generation combined with a proven record of public service and results-driven leadership. “I’m running because Wicomico deserves better,” Outten said. “Too often, our communities are expected to do more with less. We’re facing underfunded schools, limited economic opportunities, and years of neglected infrastructure. I believe Wicomico deserves leadership that listens, plans ahead, and delivers real, measurable results.” A Record of Action and A Vision for the Future On Salisbury’s City Council, Outten earned a reputation for her proactive, hands-on approach — working directly with residents to close infrastructure gaps, support first responders, and ensure everyday voices were heard. Now she’s bringing that same focus to the County Council, with priorities centered on affordability, public safety, and stronger, more resilient communities. Key Priorities for District 7: Fully fund public schools so every child has the opportunity to succeed. Fix aging infrastructure and county services through proactive investment. Keep Wicomico affordable with smarter planning and pathways to homeownership. Support first responders and safer neighborhoods through better tools, training, and prevention. Expand resources for seniors, youth, and underserved communities. Outten’s platform is rooted in real data and shaped by direct community engagement. With Wicomico now the fastest-growing school system on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — and 85% of students relying on extra resources — she points to the county’s lagging investment as a key area for action. “Strong schools lead to strong jobs, thriving industries, and healthier communities,” Outten said. “Our schools and infrastructure are at a tipping point. We need leadership that stops reacting after things break — and starts investing before they do.” A Commitment to Home and Service Born and raised in Wicomico, Megan Outten sees this campaign as a continuation of her lifelong service to her community. Her vision reflects what she’s hearing from neighbors across the county: a demand for fairness, opportunity, and accountability in local government. “Wicomico is my home; it’s where I grew up, built my life, and where I want to raise my family,” Outten said. “Our county is full of potential. We just need leaders who will listen, work hard, and get things done. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s exactly what I’ll continue to do on the County Council.” Outten will be meeting with residents across District 7 in the months ahead and unveiling more details of her platform. For more information or to get involved, contact info@meganoutten.com
By John Christie July 29, 2025
Way back in 1935, the Supreme Court determined that independent agencies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) do not violate the Constitution’s separation of powers. Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935). Congress provided that the CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, would operate as an independent agency — a multi-member, bipartisan commission whose members serve staggered terms and could be removed only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office but for no other cause.” Rejecting a claim that the removal restriction interferes with the “executive power,” the Humphrey’s Court held that Congress has the authority to “forbid their [members’] removal except for cause” when creating such “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial” bodies. As a result, these agencies have operated as independent agencies for many decades under many different presidencies. Shortly after assuming office in his second term, Donald Trump began to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of several of these agencies. The lower courts determined to reinstate the discharged members pending the ultimate outcome of the litigation, relying on Humphrey’s , resulting in yet another emergency appeal to the Supreme Court by the administration. In the first such case, a majority of the Court allowed President Trump to discharge the Democratic members of the NLRB and the MSPB while the litigation over the legality of the discharges continued. Trump v. Wilcox (May 22, 2025). The majority claimed that they do not now decide whether Humphrey’s should be overruled because “that question is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument.” However, hinting that these agency members have “considerable” executive power and suggesting that “the Government” faces greater “risk of harm” from an order allowing a removed officer to continue exercising the executive power than a wrongfully removed officer faces from being unable to perform her statutory duty,” the majority gave the President the green light to proceed. Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, dissented, asserting that Humphrey’s remains good law until overturned and forecloses both the President’s firings and the Court’s decision to award emergency relief.” Our emergency docket, while fit for some things, should not be used to “overrule or revise existing law.” Moreover, the dissenters contend that the majority’s effort to explain their decision “hardly rises to the occasion.” Maybe by saying that the Commissioners exercise “considerable” executive power, the majority is suggesting that Humphrey’s is no longer good law but if that is what the majority means, then it has foretold a “massive change” in the law and done so on the emergency docket, “with little time, scant briefing, and no argument.” And, the “greater risk of harm” in fact is that Congress provided for these discharged members to serve their full terms, protected from a President’s desire to substitute his political allies. More recently, in the latest shadow docket ruling in the administration’s favor, the same majority of the Court again permitted President Trump to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of another independent agency, this time the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Trump v. Boyle (July 23, 2025). The same three justices dissented, once more objecting to the use of the Court’s emergency docket to destroy the independence of an independent agency as established by Congress. The CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, was designed to operate as “a classic independent agency.” In Congress’s view, that structure would better enable the CPSC to achieve its mission — ensuring the safety of consumer products, from toys to appliances — than would a single-party agency under the full control of a single President. “By allowing the President to remove Commissioners for no reason other than their party affiliation, the majority has negated Congress’s choice of agency bipartisanship and independence.” The dissenters also assert that the majority’s sole professed basis for the more recent order in Boyle was its prior order in Wilcox . But in their opinion, Wilcox itself was minimally explained. So, the dissenters claim, the majority rejects the design of Congress for a whole class of agencies by “layering nothing on nothing.” “Next time, though, the majority will have two (if still under-reasoned) orders to cite. Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States (2006). * ***** *In Rapanos , in a footnote to his plurality opinion, former Supreme Court Justice Scalia explained that this allusion is to a classic story told in different forms and attributed to various authors. His favorite version: An Eastern guru affirms that the earth is supported on the back of a tiger. When asked what supports the tiger, he says it stands upon an elephant; and when asked what supports the elephant, he says it is a giant turtle. When asked, finally, what supports the giant turtle, he is briefly taken aback, but quickly replies "Ah, after that it is turtles all the way down." John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Shore Progress, Progessive Maryland, Progressive Harford Co July 15, 2025
Marylanders will not forget this vote.
Protest against Trumpcare, 2017
By Jan Plotczyk July 9, 2025
More than 30,000 of our neighbors in Maryland’s first congressional district will lose their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid because of provisions in the GOP’s heartless tax cut and spending bill passed last week.
Farm in Dorchester Co.
By Michael Chameides, Barn Raiser May 21, 2025
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
By Catlin Nchako, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities May 21, 2025
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
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