Poll: Alsobrooks has Slim Advantage over Hogan in Senate Race
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks holds a 5-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan in their campaign for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released on September 4.
The newly released Gonzales poll shows Alsobrooks leading Hogan 46%-41% with 11% still undecided.
“I wouldn’t call in the dogs. The hunt’s still on, and it’s absolutely still a race,” said pollster Patrick Gonzales.
Gonzales surveyed 820 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in November. The poll, conducted between Aug. 24-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.
The Gonzales poll on the Senate race contrasts with a recent survey suggesting a tighter race: In late August, a poll conducted for AARP showed Alsobrooks and Hogan in a dead heat. That poll sampled 600 voters in mid-August and had a 4-point margin of error.
Alsobrooks, the two-term Democratic executive of Prince George’s County, and Hogan, just the second two-term Republican governor in Maryland history, are vying to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The three-term senior senator announced his retirement more than a year ago.
If elected, Hogan would become the first Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland since Charles McC. Mathias Jr., who retired in 1987.
Alsobrooks and Hogan enter the final 60 days of the campaign with distinctly different levels of name identification among those polled.
For Hogan, 98% of voters said they recognized his name including 50% who said they have a favorable impression of the former governor. Another 19% had an unfavorable opinion and 29% said they were neutral.
Alsobrooks’ name was recognized by roughly 67% of voters surveyed, including four in 10 who said they had a favorable opinion of the county executive. Another 7% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Alsobrooks.
More than three in 10 people surveyed did not recognize her by name.
“It means regular people have lives that don’t revolve around politics,” Gonzales said.
The high number of those who do not have an impression of Alsobrooks could be an opportunity for her, but it also leaves open the door to be defined by her opponent if she does not do so herself, Gonzales said. He said Alsobrooks has a “blank slate” when it comes to how voters see her that allows Alsobrooks to define herself to voters or be defined by her opponent who “can paint whatever they want on it.”
Gonzales said many voters are not yet paying close attention to the race.
Democratic voters in Maryland outnumber their Republican counterparts by a roughly 2-1 margin. The poll shows Hogan has the support of a sizable number of Democrats – 21% said they would vote for Hogan, compared to 72% for Alsobrooks – but Gonzales said Hogan has a math challenge — namely his ability to get to 30% support from Democratic voters.
“Larry’s got to get to 30% of Democrats, no matter what,” Gonzales said. “He’s got to get 90% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and he’s got to get to 30% of Democrats. Mathematically, that’s the only way it adds up to a victory.
“So, is that possible? Of course, it’s possible. But when you look at the numbers (the poll), it’s not possible because there’s only 6% of Democrats undecided,” he said.
Maryland Matters is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Maryland Matters maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Steve Crane for questions: editor@marylandmatters.org. Follow Maryland Matters on Facebook and X .
Bryan Sears covers the governor and General Assembly, state politics, and transportation for Maryland Matters.
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