Primary Election Wrap-up 2024
The polls have closed in the 2024 Maryland primary election, held on Tuesday, May 14.
To nobody’s surprise, President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are the voters’ choices to face off in this year’s general election in November. In the race for the state’s open Senate seat, Republican Larry Hogan, the former governor, will face off against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George’s county executive. And in the District 1 Congressional primary, incumbent Andy Harris easily won the voters’ approval for the Republican ballot slot, while newcomer Blaine H. Miller III won the Democratic voters’ nod.
U.S. Senate
The most closely watched race was the U.S. Senate primary, where the winner will replace long-time Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. With the Democrats holding a slim one-seat margin in the current Senate, the Maryland result in November could well determine which party holds the majority in the Senate for the next two years, if not longer.
Hogan is the rare Republican who seems to appeal across party lines in solidly Democratic Maryland. In the Republican primary, Hogan took 60% of the votes in a seven-candidate field, his closest rival being perennial candidate Robin Ficker, who — in contrast to Hogan — aligned himself with Trump. Hogan has been trying to position himself as a moderate, saying only recently, for example, that he would work to restore Roe v. Wade if elected to the Senate — although, as governor, he vetoed several measures that would have ensured access to abortion in Maryland. His record is essentially that of a traditional business-oriented conservative Republican. It seems a good bet that most Republicans, including the Ficker voters, will stick with the party line and vote for Hogan come November.
Alsobrooks parlayed strong support from Gov. Wes Moore and the state’s Democratic party establishment to defeat Rep. David Trone (MD-6) and eight other candidates. She soundly defeated Trone, 54% to 43%. None of the other candidates received more than 1% of the votes. If elected in November, she would be the second woman and the first African American to represent Maryland in the Senate. Once in office, she has pledged to co-sponsor the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would establish legal protection on the federal level for abortion rights.
Given Hogan’s previous popularity state-wide, Alsobrooks will have her work cut out for her. Support from the national Democratic party would be a significant asset for her campaign, as would a strong get-out-the-vote effort. While the state is reliably Democratic, in what promises to be a close race, independent voters will be unusually important.
Trone, a successful businessman and the current 6th District congressman, spent more than $60 million of his own money on his campaign, with numerous ads in TV, newspapers, and social media. His ads presented him as a champion of working people and retirees, and as the candidate best positioned to defeat Hogan in November. In contrast, Alsobrooks began her media campaign much later, and spent roughly one-tenth as much as Trone, showing that money doesn’t always decide the outcome.
Trone won all the Eastern Shore counties. Trone and Alsobrooks were tied in Kent County with 722 votes apiece before absentee ballots gave him the lead, by a final margin of 24 votes. How many of those Trone voters will remain faithful to the Democratic candidate and how many will switch their votes to Hogan is unknown.
President
Both Biden and Trump won their races easily. That’s no surprise, since both are at this point their party’s presumed candidates in the November election. However, both the Democratic and Republican primaries saw a fair number of voters opting for someone other than the probable nominee. In the Democratic primary, Biden took 87% of the vote. Most of the rest of the total went to “uncommitted,” with two relative unknowns receiving just over 1% each. In the Republican primary, Trump won just over 78%, with former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley — who withdrew from the race several weeks ago — taking the rest.
It’s not clear how to interpret these results, other than the obvious fact that a number of voters aren’t happy with their party’s choices for November. Conceivably, some proportion of these voters — especially those who went for Haley — simply haven’t been paying attention to the news. But other voters object to their party’s probable nominee for any of several reasons. Some see both candidates as too old. Many Democrats are unhappy with the Biden administration’s reactions to the Israel-Gaza war. And many Republicans have soured on Trump in response to the criminal charges he faces, or because of his record while in office.
The interesting question is what these dissatisfied voters are likely to do in November. Will they sit out the election? Will they “come home” to their party’s nominee? Will they cast a protest vote for some third-party candidate? Or will they cross party lines and vote for the other major-party candidate? The answer varies from voter to voter, of course, and many of them probably won’t decide what they’re doing until November. In a reliably Blue state like Maryland, it won’t affect the ultimate result in the presidential race. But in swing states, which are crucial to the nationwide outcome, it could make all the difference.
1st District U.S. Congress
Finally, it looks as if Republican incumbent Andy Harris is set to coast to another term in Congress. He received nearly 78% of primary votes, with Chris Bruneau Sr. taking 16% and Michael Scott Lemon 6%. In the Democratic primary, Blaine Miller won with 61% over Blessing T. Oluwadare with 39%.
The figure that may be most telling is that 36,122 Democrats voted in the congressional primary compared to 41,681 in the presidential race. To put it bluntly, more than 5,000 Democrats weren’t inspired to vote for either of the two District 1 congressional contenders. That doesn’t say much for Miller’s chances to eject Harris from Congress.
It’s a good long stretch from now to the general election, and there are bound to be a few surprises along the way. But for Marylanders, it looks as if the senatorial contest will be the hardest fought, with Hogan hoping his appeal to voters of the opposite party remains strong and Alsobrooks highlighting her administrative experience and proven support of reproductive rights, jobs, education, and access to healthcare.
The primary is now over, with a Democratic slate of Biden for President, Alsobrooks for Senate, and Miller for 1st District in Congress taking on the Republican ticket of Trump, Hogan, and Harris. Keep reading Common Sense for regular updates on all the issues and candidates.
Peter Heck is a Chestertown-based writer and editor, who spent 10 years at the Kent County News and three more with the Chestertown Spy. He is the author of 10 novels and co-author of four plays, a book reviewer for Asimov’s and Kirkus Reviews, and an incorrigible guitarist.
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