Should I Go or Should I Stay? A New “Traffic Light” Method to Evaluate Covid-19 Risk

Jane Jewell • September 29, 2020

It’s been seven months since the beginning of March and the various lock-downs, lay-offs, and closings, plus the variety of work-at-home, stay-at-home, wear-a-mask, and keep-your-distance orders and recommendations. All this has been followed by re-openings, then re-closings, then partial, phased openings, etc. It’s been a real rollercoaster ride. And we all thought it would just be a couple of months. But now, going forward, we each have to decide when, where, and how we can venture out.

Should I risk leaving home this time? Do I have a choice? What about my family, friends, and co-workers? We all face these questions daily. What do we know about the risk of covid-19? Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, the routine of wearing masks, sanitizing hands and surfaces, and social distancing is still the only recommended way to slow the spread and for individuals to lower their personal risk. But there are some nuances to these techniques.

Staying six feet apart is a good rule of thumb. But that’s all it is. It does not cover all situations. The six-foot rule was first established in the late 1800s. In the 1940s, research with slow-motion photography helped confirm it. This verified that sneezes and coughs — all filled with germs and other nasties — could be propelled through the air approximately six feet. It was generally acknowledged that almost all of the infectious particles would fall to the ground within that distance.

But that is just for the “average” one-person scenario. Researchers now know that certain circumstances increase both the time and distance that airborne particles can persist, with exhalations sometimes traveling as far as 30 feet and remaining suspended in the air for several hours. Risk of exposure and infection varies with the number of people, number of people wearing masks, the distance between people, the vocal volume of people, the time spent with people, and the ventilation of the area. Fewer masks increase risk of infection as do more people, more vocalization, more time, less distance, and less ventilation. It’s not just six feet apart and you’re safe, anymore.

Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have joined with colleagues from Oxford University in England to develop a new, color-coded “Traffic Signal” to help people make more accurate evaluations about the risk of exposure to covid-19.


In general, the risk is higher when a large number of people crowd together indoors with poor ventilation. Risk is higher if people are not wearing masks or are engaged in loud activities that propel their breath across the space, such as when singing, shouting, or breathing heavily from exertion. Increase the time spent in those circumstances and the risk is even more.

 

The researchers suggest consulting the “Traffic Light” chart to find the type of situation you will be in. If the color is green, the risk is relatively low, especially if you wear a mask and are not there for hours at a time. If the color is yellow, proceed with caution. Risk is at a medium level for “yellow” situations. In any situation, you can reduce the risk by wearing a mask and remaining for as short a time as possible. If the color is red, that means stop. Avoid any “red” situations if possible. If you must go, wear a mask, minimize the duration of your visit, and wash your hands and use hand sanitizer both during the activity and immediately upon leaving and then again when arriving at home. And change your clothes.

 

Using this color-coded chart can help us make better informed decisions, reduce our personal risk of infection, and — hopefully — our levels of anxiety until a vaccine arrives.

 

 

Update on Covid-19 on the Eastern Shore

 

Notice that six of the nine Eastern Shore counties have new-case rates higher than the current Maryland state average of 54 for the week ending Sept. 26, 2020. The positivity rate for Maryland as a whole has dropped to below three percent but has been on the rise recently in several Eastern Shore areas.



Sources and more information:

 

Covid-19 chart statistics from the New York Times interactive covid-19 database, which is updated several times a day for all fifty states with breakdowns by county.

 

“The 6-Foot Distancing Rule is Outdated,” Business Insider, Aug. 25, 2020

 

“Rigid Social Distancing Rules for Covid-19 Based on Outdated Science,” Eureka Alert, Aug. 25, 2020

 

Covid-19 Activity Risk Index, covid-19reopen.com

 

“Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?” The BMJ, August 25, 2020

 

 

Jane Jewell is a writer, editor, photographer, and teacher. She has worked in news, publishing, and as the director of a national writer's group. She lives in Chestertown with her husband Peter Heck, a ginger cat named Riley, and a lot of books.


Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By Friends of Megan Outten July 29, 2025
Megan Outten, a lifelong Wicomico County resident and former Salisbury City Councilwoman, officially announced her candidacy recently for Wicomico County Council, District 7. At 33, Outten brings the energy of a new generation combined with a proven record of public service and results-driven leadership. “I’m running because Wicomico deserves better,” Outten said. “Too often, our communities are expected to do more with less. We’re facing underfunded schools, limited economic opportunities, and years of neglected infrastructure. I believe Wicomico deserves leadership that listens, plans ahead, and delivers real, measurable results.” A Record of Action and A Vision for the Future On Salisbury’s City Council, Outten earned a reputation for her proactive, hands-on approach — working directly with residents to close infrastructure gaps, support first responders, and ensure everyday voices were heard. Now she’s bringing that same focus to the County Council, with priorities centered on affordability, public safety, and stronger, more resilient communities. Key Priorities for District 7: Fully fund public schools so every child has the opportunity to succeed. Fix aging infrastructure and county services through proactive investment. Keep Wicomico affordable with smarter planning and pathways to homeownership. Support first responders and safer neighborhoods through better tools, training, and prevention. Expand resources for seniors, youth, and underserved communities. Outten’s platform is rooted in real data and shaped by direct community engagement. With Wicomico now the fastest-growing school system on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — and 85% of students relying on extra resources — she points to the county’s lagging investment as a key area for action. “Strong schools lead to strong jobs, thriving industries, and healthier communities,” Outten said. “Our schools and infrastructure are at a tipping point. We need leadership that stops reacting after things break — and starts investing before they do.” A Commitment to Home and Service Born and raised in Wicomico, Megan Outten sees this campaign as a continuation of her lifelong service to her community. Her vision reflects what she’s hearing from neighbors across the county: a demand for fairness, opportunity, and accountability in local government. “Wicomico is my home; it’s where I grew up, built my life, and where I want to raise my family,” Outten said. “Our county is full of potential. We just need leaders who will listen, work hard, and get things done. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s exactly what I’ll continue to do on the County Council.” Outten will be meeting with residents across District 7 in the months ahead and unveiling more details of her platform. For more information or to get involved, contact info@meganoutten.com
By John Christie July 29, 2025
Way back in 1935, the Supreme Court determined that independent agencies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) do not violate the Constitution’s separation of powers. Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935). Congress provided that the CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, would operate as an independent agency — a multi-member, bipartisan commission whose members serve staggered terms and could be removed only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office but for no other cause.” Rejecting a claim that the removal restriction interferes with the “executive power,” the Humphrey’s Court held that Congress has the authority to “forbid their [members’] removal except for cause” when creating such “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial” bodies. As a result, these agencies have operated as independent agencies for many decades under many different presidencies. Shortly after assuming office in his second term, Donald Trump began to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of several of these agencies. The lower courts determined to reinstate the discharged members pending the ultimate outcome of the litigation, relying on Humphrey’s , resulting in yet another emergency appeal to the Supreme Court by the administration. In the first such case, a majority of the Court allowed President Trump to discharge the Democratic members of the NLRB and the MSPB while the litigation over the legality of the discharges continued. Trump v. Wilcox (May 22, 2025). The majority claimed that they do not now decide whether Humphrey’s should be overruled because “that question is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument.” However, hinting that these agency members have “considerable” executive power and suggesting that “the Government” faces greater “risk of harm” from an order allowing a removed officer to continue exercising the executive power than a wrongfully removed officer faces from being unable to perform her statutory duty,” the majority gave the President the green light to proceed. Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, dissented, asserting that Humphrey’s remains good law until overturned and forecloses both the President’s firings and the Court’s decision to award emergency relief.” Our emergency docket, while fit for some things, should not be used to “overrule or revise existing law.” Moreover, the dissenters contend that the majority’s effort to explain their decision “hardly rises to the occasion.” Maybe by saying that the Commissioners exercise “considerable” executive power, the majority is suggesting that Humphrey’s is no longer good law but if that is what the majority means, then it has foretold a “massive change” in the law and done so on the emergency docket, “with little time, scant briefing, and no argument.” And, the “greater risk of harm” in fact is that Congress provided for these discharged members to serve their full terms, protected from a President’s desire to substitute his political allies. More recently, in the latest shadow docket ruling in the administration’s favor, the same majority of the Court again permitted President Trump to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of another independent agency, this time the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Trump v. Boyle (July 23, 2025). The same three justices dissented, once more objecting to the use of the Court’s emergency docket to destroy the independence of an independent agency as established by Congress. The CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, was designed to operate as “a classic independent agency.” In Congress’s view, that structure would better enable the CPSC to achieve its mission — ensuring the safety of consumer products, from toys to appliances — than would a single-party agency under the full control of a single President. “By allowing the President to remove Commissioners for no reason other than their party affiliation, the majority has negated Congress’s choice of agency bipartisanship and independence.” The dissenters also assert that the majority’s sole professed basis for the more recent order in Boyle was its prior order in Wilcox . But in their opinion, Wilcox itself was minimally explained. So, the dissenters claim, the majority rejects the design of Congress for a whole class of agencies by “layering nothing on nothing.” “Next time, though, the majority will have two (if still under-reasoned) orders to cite. Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States (2006). * ***** *In Rapanos , in a footnote to his plurality opinion, former Supreme Court Justice Scalia explained that this allusion is to a classic story told in different forms and attributed to various authors. His favorite version: An Eastern guru affirms that the earth is supported on the back of a tiger. When asked what supports the tiger, he says it stands upon an elephant; and when asked what supports the elephant, he says it is a giant turtle. When asked, finally, what supports the giant turtle, he is briefly taken aback, but quickly replies "Ah, after that it is turtles all the way down." John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Shore Progress, Progessive Maryland, Progressive Harford Co July 15, 2025
Marylanders will not forget this vote.
Protest against Trumpcare, 2017
By Jan Plotczyk July 9, 2025
More than 30,000 of our neighbors in Maryland’s first congressional district will lose their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid because of provisions in the GOP’s heartless tax cut and spending bill passed last week.
Farm in Dorchester Co.
By Michael Chameides, Barn Raiser May 21, 2025
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
By Catlin Nchako, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities May 21, 2025
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
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