Should I Go or Should I Stay? A New “Traffic Light” Method to Evaluate Covid-19 Risk
Jane Jewell • September 29, 2020
It’s been seven months since the beginning of March and the various lock-downs, lay-offs, and closings, plus the variety of work-at-home, stay-at-home, wear-a-mask, and keep-your-distance orders and recommendations. All this has been followed by re-openings, then re-closings, then partial, phased openings, etc. It’s been a real rollercoaster ride. And we all thought it would just be a couple of months. But now, going forward, we each have to decide when, where, and how we can venture out.
Should I risk leaving home this time? Do I have a choice? What about my family, friends, and co-workers? We all face these questions daily. What do we know about the risk of covid-19? Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, the routine of wearing masks, sanitizing hands and surfaces, and social distancing is still the only recommended way to slow the spread and for individuals to lower their personal risk. But there are some nuances to these techniques.
Staying six feet apart is a good rule of thumb. But that’s all it is. It does not cover all situations. The six-foot rule was first established in the late 1800s. In the 1940s, research with slow-motion photography helped confirm it. This verified that sneezes and coughs — all filled with germs and other nasties — could be propelled through the air approximately six feet. It was generally acknowledged that almost all of the infectious particles would fall to the ground within that distance.
But that is just for the “average” one-person scenario. Researchers now know that certain circumstances increase both the time and distance that airborne particles can persist, with exhalations sometimes traveling as far as 30 feet and remaining suspended in the air for several hours. Risk of exposure and infection varies with the number of people, number of people wearing masks, the distance between people, the vocal volume of people, the time spent with people, and the ventilation of the area. Fewer masks increase risk of infection as do more people, more vocalization, more time, less distance, and less ventilation. It’s not just six feet apart and you’re safe, anymore.
Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have joined with colleagues from Oxford University in England to develop a new, color-coded “Traffic Signal” to help people make more accurate evaluations about the risk of exposure to covid-19.
In general, the risk is higher when a large number of people crowd together indoors with poor ventilation. Risk is higher if people are not wearing masks or are engaged in loud activities that propel their breath across the space, such as when singing, shouting, or breathing heavily from exertion. Increase the time spent in those circumstances and the risk is even more.
The researchers suggest consulting the “Traffic Light” chart to find the type of situation you will be in. If the color is green, the risk is relatively low, especially if you wear a mask and are not there for hours at a time. If the color is yellow, proceed with caution. Risk is at a medium level for “yellow” situations. In any situation, you can reduce the risk by wearing a mask and remaining for as short a time as possible. If the color is red, that means stop. Avoid any “red” situations if possible. If you must go, wear a mask, minimize the duration of your visit, and wash your hands and use hand sanitizer both during the activity and immediately upon leaving and then again when arriving at home. And change your clothes.
Using this color-coded chart can help us make better informed decisions, reduce our personal risk of infection, and — hopefully — our levels of anxiety until a vaccine arrives.
Update on Covid-19 on the Eastern Shore
Notice that six of the nine Eastern Shore counties have new-case rates higher than the current Maryland state average of 54 for the week ending Sept. 26, 2020. The positivity rate for Maryland as a whole has dropped to below three percent but has been on the rise recently in several Eastern Shore areas.
Sources and more information:
Covid-19 chart statistics from the New York Times interactive covid-19 database, which is updated several times a day for all fifty states with breakdowns by county.
“The 6-Foot Distancing Rule is Outdated,” Business Insider, Aug. 25, 2020
“Rigid Social Distancing Rules for Covid-19 Based on Outdated Science,” Eureka Alert, Aug. 25, 2020
Covid-19 Activity Risk Index, covid-19reopen.com
“Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?” The BMJ, August 25, 2020
Jane Jewell is a writer, editor, photographer, and teacher. She has worked in news, publishing, and as the director of a national writer's group. She lives in Chestertown with her husband Peter Heck, a ginger cat named Riley, and a lot of books.
Common Sense for the Eastern Shore
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
Apparently, some people think that the GOP’s “big beautiful bill” is a foregone conclusion, and that the struggle over the budget and Trump’s agenda is over and done. Not true. On Sunday night, the bill — given the alternate name “Big Bad Bullsh*t Bill” by the Democratic Women’s Caucus — was voted out of the House Budget Committee. The GOP plan is to pass this legislation in the House before Memorial Day. But that’s not the end of it. As Jessica Craven explained in her Chop Wood Carry Water column: “Remember, we have at least six weeks left in this process. The bill has to: Pass the House, Then head to the Senate where it will likely be rewritten almost completely, Then be passed there, Then be brought back to the House for reconciliation, And then, if the House changes that version at all, Go back to the Senate for another vote.” She adds, “Every step of that process is a place for us to kill it.” The bill is over a thousand pages long, and the American people will not get a chance to read it until it has passed the House. But, thanks to 5Calls , we know it includes:
Let's talk about our Eastern Shore Delegation, the representatives who are supposed to fight for our nine Shore counties in Annapolis, and what they actually got up to this session.
For the first time in recent memory, Virginia Democrats have candidates running in all 100 House of Delegates districts — a milestone party leaders and grassroots organizers say reflects rising momentum as President Donald Trump’s second term continues to galvanize opposition.
The 447th legislative session of the Maryland General Assembly adjourned on April 8. This End of Session Report highlights the work Shore Progress has done to fight for working families and bring real results home to the Shore. Over the 90-day session, lawmakers debated 1,901 bills and passed 878 into law. Shore Progress and members supported legislation that delivers for the Eastern Shore, protecting our environment, expanding access to housing and healthcare, strengthening workers’ rights, and more. Shore Progress Supported Legislation By The Numbers: Over 60 pieces of our backed legislation were passed. Another 15 passed in one Chamber but not the other. Legislation details are below, past the budget section. The 2026 Maryland State Budget How We Got Here: Maryland’s budget problems didn’t start overnight. They began under Governor Larry Hogan. Governor Hogan expanded the state budget yearly but blocked the legislature from moving money around or making common-sense changes. Instead of fixing the structural issues, Hogan used federal covid relief funds to hide the cracks and drained our state’s savings from $5.5 billion to $2.3 billion to boost his image before leaving office. How Trump/Musk Made It Worse: Maryland is facing a new fiscal crisis driven by the Trump–Musk administration, whose trade wars, tariff policies, and deep federal cuts have hit us harder than most, costing the state over 30,000 jobs, shuttering offices, and erasing promised investments. A University of Maryland study estimates Trump’s tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion, and those federal cuts have already added $300 million to our budget deficit. Covid aid gave us a short-term boost and even created a fake surplus under Hogan, but that money is gone, while housing, healthcare, and college prices keep rising. The Trump–Musk White House is only making things worse by slashing funding, gutting services, and eliminating research that Marylanders rely on. How The State Budget Fixes These Issues: This year, Maryland faced a $3 billion budget gap, and the General Assembly fixed it with a smart mix of cuts and fair new revenue, while protecting working families, schools, and health care. The 2025 Budget cuts $1.9 billion ($400 million less than last year) without gutting services people rely on. The General Assembly raised $1.2 billion in fair new revenue, mostly from the wealthiest Marylanders. The Budget ended with a $350 million surplus, plus $2.4 billion saved in the Rainy Day Fund (more than 9% of general fund revenue), which came in $7 million above what the Spending Affordability Committee called for. The budget protects funding for our schools, health care, transit, and public workers. The budget delivers real wins: $800 million more annually for transit and infrastructure, plus $500 million for long-term transportation needs. It invests $9.7 billion in public schools and boosts local education aid by $572.5 million, a 7% increase. If current revenue trends hold, no new taxes will be needed next session. Even better, 94% of Marylanders will see a tax cut or no change, while only the wealthiest 5% will finally pay their fair share. The tax system is smarter now. We’re: Taxing IT and data services like Texas and D.C. do; Raising taxes on cannabis and sports betting, not groceries or medicine; and Letting counties adjust income taxes. The budget also restores critical funding: $122 million for teacher planning $15 million for cancer research $11 million for crime victims $7 million for local business zones, and Continued support for public TV, the arts, and BCCC The budget invests in People with disabilities, with $181 million in services Growing private-sector jobs with $139 million in funding, including $27.5 million for quantum tech, $16 million for the Sunny Day Fund, and $10 million for infrastructure loans. Health care is protected for 1.5 million Marylanders, with $15.6 billion for Medicaid and higher provider pay. Public safety is getting a boost too, with $60 million for victim services, $5.5 million for juvenile services, and $5 million for parole and probation staffing. This budget also tackles climate change with $100 million for clean energy and solar projects, and $200 million in potential ratepayer relief. Public workers get a well-deserved raise, with $200 million in salary increases, including a 1% COLA and ~2.5% raises for union workers. The ultra-wealthy will finally chip in to pay for it: People earning over $750,000 will pay more, Millionaires will pay 6.5%, and Capital gains over $350,000 get a 2% surcharge. Deductions are capped for high earners, but working families can still deduct student loans, medical debt, and donations. This budget is bold, fair, and built to last. That’s why Shore Progress proudly supports it. Click on the arrows below for details in each section.
