Should I Go or Should I Stay? A New “Traffic Light” Method to Evaluate Covid-19 Risk
Should I risk leaving home this time? Do I have a choice? What about my family, friends, and co-workers? We all face these questions daily. What do we know about the risk of covid-19? Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, the routine of wearing masks, sanitizing hands and surfaces, and social distancing is still the only recommended way to slow the spread and for individuals to lower their personal risk. But there are some nuances to these techniques.
Staying six feet apart is a good rule of thumb. But that’s all it is. It does not cover all situations. The six-foot rule was first established in the late 1800s. In the 1940s, research with slow-motion photography helped confirm it. This verified that sneezes and coughs — all filled with germs and other nasties — could be propelled through the air approximately six feet. It was generally acknowledged that almost all of the infectious particles would fall to the ground within that distance.
But that is just for the “average” one-person scenario. Researchers now know that certain circumstances increase both the time and distance that airborne particles can persist, with exhalations sometimes traveling as far as 30 feet and remaining suspended in the air for several hours. Risk of exposure and infection varies with the number of people, number of people wearing masks, the distance between people, the vocal volume of people, the time spent with people, and the ventilation of the area. Fewer masks increase risk of infection as do more people, more vocalization, more time, less distance, and less ventilation. It’s not just six feet apart and you’re safe, anymore.
Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have joined with colleagues from Oxford University in England to develop a new, color-coded “Traffic Signal” to help people make more accurate evaluations about the risk of exposure to covid-19.
In general, the risk is higher when a large number of people crowd together indoors with poor ventilation. Risk is higher if people are not wearing masks or are engaged in loud activities that propel their breath across the space, such as when singing, shouting, or breathing heavily from exertion. Increase the time spent in those circumstances and the risk is even more.
The researchers suggest consulting the “Traffic Light” chart to find the type of situation you will be in. If the color is green, the risk is relatively low, especially if you wear a mask and are not there for hours at a time. If the color is yellow, proceed with caution. Risk is at a medium level for “yellow” situations. In any situation, you can reduce the risk by wearing a mask and remaining for as short a time as possible. If the color is red, that means stop. Avoid any “red” situations if possible. If you must go, wear a mask, minimize the duration of your visit, and wash your hands and use hand sanitizer both during the activity and immediately upon leaving and then again when arriving at home. And change your clothes.
Using this color-coded chart can help us make better informed decisions, reduce our personal risk of infection, and — hopefully — our levels of anxiety until a vaccine arrives.
Update on Covid-19 on the Eastern Shore
Notice that six of the nine Eastern Shore counties have new-case rates higher than the current Maryland state average of 54 for the week ending Sept. 26, 2020. The positivity rate for Maryland as a whole has dropped to below three percent but has been on the rise recently in several Eastern Shore areas.
Sources and more information:
Covid-19 chart statistics from the New York Times interactive covid-19 database, which is updated several times a day for all fifty states with breakdowns by county.
“The 6-Foot Distancing Rule is Outdated,” Business Insider, Aug. 25, 2020
“Rigid Social Distancing Rules for Covid-19 Based on Outdated Science,” Eureka Alert, Aug. 25, 2020
Covid-19 Activity Risk Index, covid-19reopen.com
“Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?” The BMJ, August 25, 2020
Jane Jewell is a writer, editor, photographer, and teacher. She has worked in news, publishing, and as the director of a national writer's group. She lives in Chestertown with her husband Peter Heck, a ginger cat named Riley, and a lot of books.
Common Sense for the Eastern Shore




