Should I Go to that Wedding, or Not?

Jan Plotczyk • August 18, 2020

Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted in many parts of the country, but with different levels of infection and mask wearing and social distancing, how can we gauge how safe it is to attend events of various sizes?

Well, the very cool folks at the Georgia Tech Applied Biometrics Lab have figured out a way to estimate just that.

They’ve released a Covid-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool to show us the risk level of attending events of different sizes, in different locations.

The risk level is the estimated chance (0–100 percent) that at least one person who is positive for covid-19 will be present at an event in a county, taking into consideration the number of people who are currently infectious in that county, and the number of people at the event.

For example, suppose you’ve been invited to a dinner party in Dorchester County where there will be 10 people. What are the chances that one of those people will be positive for covid-19?

Before we can answer that, we need to know how many more positive cases there are than have been reported. But how can we know that? Cases can be under-reported due to testing shortages, asymptomatic “silent spreaders,” and reporting lags.

The folks at Georgia Tech explain that based on antibody testing, they figure there are 10 times more cases in the country than are being reported. So we need a way to compensate for this (called an ascertainment bias), and they’ve built that into the tool.

Back to our dinner party. Assuming the Georgia Tech folks are correct, and there are 10 times the number of cases as have been reported in Dorchester County, the chance that one of the 10 dinner party guests will be positive for covid-19 is 19 percent.
 
This means only that there is a 19 percent chance that one person at the dinner party is infectious. It does not mean that you have a 19 percent risk of being exposed or infected at the event.

How are those things different? Well, even if there is an infected person at the dinner party, your risk of becoming infected would depend on factors such as whether people are social distancing, wearing masks, not singing, eating outside, not hugging, not sharing food, etc. The probability that you will be infected could be anywhere from 0–100 percent depending on those and other factors (although I’d bet against 0 percent), and there’s no way to calculate it.

Back again to our assumption about reporting accuracy. In areas where testing is more available, the infection level may be only 5 times higher than reported. If that is the case in Dorchester County, the risk level at our dinner party drops to 10 percent — there is a 10 percent chance that one person at the dinner party is infectious.

Let’s do another example — a 100-person party in Worcester County. If the infection rate in the county is 10 times that reported, there is a 98 percent chance that one person at the party is infectious. If the infection rate is 5 times that reported, the risk level is 84 percent. Again, this is not an estimate of whether you’ll be exposed or infected. But this tool gives us the opportunity to make informed decisions. If there is between an 84 and 98 percent chance that a covid-19 infected person will be at that party, it’s fairly certain that person will be there.

The Georgia Tech wizards warn that these calculations are estimates based on imperfect data. They also caution us to remember that super-spreading events (where one infected person transmits the virus to many others) have occurred and are still possible, no matter the size of the event.

These estimates are updated daily on the website. And the tool can estimate events of up to 10,000 people. So have a look — instructions are below. This is just one more way to try to deal with and make sense of this pandemic. Me? I’m staying home.


How to use the Covid-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool:

  • Go to: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
  • NOTE: When you scroll, do NOT scroll in the map area, as this will unintentionally affect the map zoom.
  • Scroll down and set Event Size in the left sidebar.
  • Then set Ascertainment Bias to either 5 (5 times more infections in the county than reported) or 10 (10 times more infections).
  • Scroll back up and use the ‘+’ to increase the map zoom; 3 times is good.
  • Now the map will be centered in the Midwest, so drag the map toward the east coast so you can see the Eastern Shore.
  • Just hover over the county you’re interested in to see the current risk level.

 

Chande, A.T., Gussler, W., Harris, M., Lee, S., Rishishwar, L., Jordan, I.K., Andris, C.M., and Weitz, J.S. 'Interactive COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool', http://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

 

Weitz, J.S., Harris, M., Chande, A.T., Gussler, J.W., Rishishwar, L. and Jordan, I.K. (2020) Online COVID-19 Dashboard Calculates How Risky Reopenings and Gatherings Can Be. Sci Am. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/online-covid-19-dashboard-calculates-how-risky-reopenings-and-gatherings-can-be/

 

 

Jan Plotczyk spent 25 years as a statistician with the federal government. She retired to Rock Hall.


Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By Friends of Megan Outten July 29, 2025
Megan Outten, a lifelong Wicomico County resident and former Salisbury City Councilwoman, officially announced her candidacy recently for Wicomico County Council, District 7. At 33, Outten brings the energy of a new generation combined with a proven record of public service and results-driven leadership. “I’m running because Wicomico deserves better,” Outten said. “Too often, our communities are expected to do more with less. We’re facing underfunded schools, limited economic opportunities, and years of neglected infrastructure. I believe Wicomico deserves leadership that listens, plans ahead, and delivers real, measurable results.” A Record of Action and A Vision for the Future On Salisbury’s City Council, Outten earned a reputation for her proactive, hands-on approach — working directly with residents to close infrastructure gaps, support first responders, and ensure everyday voices were heard. Now she’s bringing that same focus to the County Council, with priorities centered on affordability, public safety, and stronger, more resilient communities. Key Priorities for District 7: Fully fund public schools so every child has the opportunity to succeed. Fix aging infrastructure and county services through proactive investment. Keep Wicomico affordable with smarter planning and pathways to homeownership. Support first responders and safer neighborhoods through better tools, training, and prevention. Expand resources for seniors, youth, and underserved communities. Outten’s platform is rooted in real data and shaped by direct community engagement. With Wicomico now the fastest-growing school system on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — and 85% of students relying on extra resources — she points to the county’s lagging investment as a key area for action. “Strong schools lead to strong jobs, thriving industries, and healthier communities,” Outten said. “Our schools and infrastructure are at a tipping point. We need leadership that stops reacting after things break — and starts investing before they do.” A Commitment to Home and Service Born and raised in Wicomico, Megan Outten sees this campaign as a continuation of her lifelong service to her community. Her vision reflects what she’s hearing from neighbors across the county: a demand for fairness, opportunity, and accountability in local government. “Wicomico is my home; it’s where I grew up, built my life, and where I want to raise my family,” Outten said. “Our county is full of potential. We just need leaders who will listen, work hard, and get things done. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s exactly what I’ll continue to do on the County Council.” Outten will be meeting with residents across District 7 in the months ahead and unveiling more details of her platform. For more information or to get involved, contact info@meganoutten.com
By John Christie July 29, 2025
Way back in 1935, the Supreme Court determined that independent agencies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) do not violate the Constitution’s separation of powers. Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935). Congress provided that the CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, would operate as an independent agency — a multi-member, bipartisan commission whose members serve staggered terms and could be removed only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office but for no other cause.” Rejecting a claim that the removal restriction interferes with the “executive power,” the Humphrey’s Court held that Congress has the authority to “forbid their [members’] removal except for cause” when creating such “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial” bodies. As a result, these agencies have operated as independent agencies for many decades under many different presidencies. Shortly after assuming office in his second term, Donald Trump began to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of several of these agencies. The lower courts determined to reinstate the discharged members pending the ultimate outcome of the litigation, relying on Humphrey’s , resulting in yet another emergency appeal to the Supreme Court by the administration. In the first such case, a majority of the Court allowed President Trump to discharge the Democratic members of the NLRB and the MSPB while the litigation over the legality of the discharges continued. Trump v. Wilcox (May 22, 2025). The majority claimed that they do not now decide whether Humphrey’s should be overruled because “that question is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument.” However, hinting that these agency members have “considerable” executive power and suggesting that “the Government” faces greater “risk of harm” from an order allowing a removed officer to continue exercising the executive power than a wrongfully removed officer faces from being unable to perform her statutory duty,” the majority gave the President the green light to proceed. Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, dissented, asserting that Humphrey’s remains good law until overturned and forecloses both the President’s firings and the Court’s decision to award emergency relief.” Our emergency docket, while fit for some things, should not be used to “overrule or revise existing law.” Moreover, the dissenters contend that the majority’s effort to explain their decision “hardly rises to the occasion.” Maybe by saying that the Commissioners exercise “considerable” executive power, the majority is suggesting that Humphrey’s is no longer good law but if that is what the majority means, then it has foretold a “massive change” in the law and done so on the emergency docket, “with little time, scant briefing, and no argument.” And, the “greater risk of harm” in fact is that Congress provided for these discharged members to serve their full terms, protected from a President’s desire to substitute his political allies. More recently, in the latest shadow docket ruling in the administration’s favor, the same majority of the Court again permitted President Trump to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of another independent agency, this time the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Trump v. Boyle (July 23, 2025). The same three justices dissented, once more objecting to the use of the Court’s emergency docket to destroy the independence of an independent agency as established by Congress. The CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, was designed to operate as “a classic independent agency.” In Congress’s view, that structure would better enable the CPSC to achieve its mission — ensuring the safety of consumer products, from toys to appliances — than would a single-party agency under the full control of a single President. “By allowing the President to remove Commissioners for no reason other than their party affiliation, the majority has negated Congress’s choice of agency bipartisanship and independence.” The dissenters also assert that the majority’s sole professed basis for the more recent order in Boyle was its prior order in Wilcox . But in their opinion, Wilcox itself was minimally explained. So, the dissenters claim, the majority rejects the design of Congress for a whole class of agencies by “layering nothing on nothing.” “Next time, though, the majority will have two (if still under-reasoned) orders to cite. Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States (2006). * ***** *In Rapanos , in a footnote to his plurality opinion, former Supreme Court Justice Scalia explained that this allusion is to a classic story told in different forms and attributed to various authors. His favorite version: An Eastern guru affirms that the earth is supported on the back of a tiger. When asked what supports the tiger, he says it stands upon an elephant; and when asked what supports the elephant, he says it is a giant turtle. When asked, finally, what supports the giant turtle, he is briefly taken aback, but quickly replies "Ah, after that it is turtles all the way down." John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Shore Progress, Progessive Maryland, Progressive Harford Co July 15, 2025
Marylanders will not forget this vote.
Protest against Trumpcare, 2017
By Jan Plotczyk July 9, 2025
More than 30,000 of our neighbors in Maryland’s first congressional district will lose their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid because of provisions in the GOP’s heartless tax cut and spending bill passed last week.
Farm in Dorchester Co.
By Michael Chameides, Barn Raiser May 21, 2025
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
By Catlin Nchako, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities May 21, 2025
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
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