The Decline of Landlines and the Rise of Political Polling

Jan Plotczyk • October 10, 2023


What kind of telephone do you use?

 

Do you have a landline? Do you rely only on a mobile (wireless) phone? Do you have both? Or do you not have any kind of telephone service at all?

 

The National Health Interview Survey has been tracking these statistics for 20 years. Unfortunately, they are not available on a county basis, so we can’t look at the Eastern Shore, but they’re interesting, nonetheless.

 

The NHIS is a federal government program that conducts interviews about health issues. They interview Americans by telephone and started asking respondents about their choice of telephone device when cell phones started to be a bigger presence in Americans’ means of communications. Twice a year, the agency releases a report with estimates of what they call “Wireless Substitution.”

 

Nationally, as of the end of 2022, two-thirds of American adults were “wireless-only” — they had their own wireless phone and lived in a household that did not have a landline. Here are the characteristics of the wireless-only adult Americans:

 

  • The percent of wireless-only adults decreased by age: 85% of adults 25-34 relied only on a wireless phone, whereas 40% of those over 65 did.


  • Hispanic adults (80%) were more likely than non-Hispanic Asian (73%), non-Hispanic Black (70%), or non-Hispanic White (70%) adults to be wireless-only.


  • Men (72%) were slightly more likely than women (71%) to be wireless-only.


  • Adults living in the West (76%), Midwest (74%), and South (74%) were more likely than those living in the Northeast (58%) to be wireless-only (Maryland is included in the South).


  • The percent of wireless-only adults decreased with an increase in family income: 78% of poor adults and 75% of near-poor adults were wireless-only, compared with 71% of adults with higher family incomes.


  • Adults living in rented homes were more likely to be wireless-only (85%) than adults living in homes owned by a household member (66%).

 

Quite the opposite are the adults who live in a landline-only household, which, at the end of 2022, was a smidge over 1%. Adults over 65 account for most of this group.

 

And there are those who, even though they own wireless phones, hold on to their landlines; at the end of 2022, these folks accounted for a quarter of adults. Adults over 65 account for most of this group as well.

 

Households without phone service at all has remained steady at less than 1% for a number of years.

 


Pollsters, researchers, and others who once relied on telephone communications to gauge the opinions of Americans saw the trend toward wireless telephone use and quickly changed the way they did business.

 

Using a sample pulled from the universe of landline telephone numbers was once an acceptable way to get a representative sample of Americans because most everyone had a landline.

 

But as wireless phones became more prevalent, the universe of landlines became increasingly less representative (see the statistics above to illustrate the uneven adoption of wireless technology among demographic groups). So wireless telephones were added to the universe.

 

However, wireless phone owners proved just as reluctant as landline owners to answer calls from unknown callers. So many survey operations moved online.

 

For online polling, representative samples are generally selected from an address file, not a telephone file. Respondents are contacted via mail, with an invitation to participate in a survey, and are then instructed on how to participate online; if the individual does not have online access, it can be provided.

 

But an opportunity presented itself with online polling that had not existed before: opt-in surveys. The people who participate in these surveys sign themselves up to get money or other rewards by taking surveys or they are recruited by a company. For example, after responding to a survey designed on the Survey Monkey platform, people are offered the opportunity to take another survey; certain credit card companies extend offers of rewards for survey participation.

 

Pew Research Center estimates that “more than 80% of the public polls used to track key indicators of U.S. public opinion, such as the president’s approval rating or support for Democratic presidential candidates, are conducted using online opt-in polling.” Hmmm. That sounds like a lot.

 

To try to gauge what effect this survey method has on results, Pew Research Center did a study. Published in 2020, the study surveyed over 62,000 U.S. adults using different online methods of surveying. Responses were then examined for quality.

 

The study found that online surveys can be influenced by “bogus respondents.” A bogus respondent is defined as a person who took the survey multiple times; or lived outside the United States (even though the survey asked for U.S. adults to respond); or gave multiple illogical or plagiarized open-ended answers; or always said they approve or favor regardless of what was asked.

 

The study found that the opt-in survey where respondents were paid or otherwise rewarded for their participation had a relatively large number of bogus respondents — 7%. The surveys where the respondents were recruited by survey companies had fewer (4-6%). These numbers are large enough to affect the outcome of a poll. The surveys that used a representative sample of respondents randomly sampled using addresses had too few bogus respondents (1%) to have any significant effect.

 

Fraudulent data generated by bots is also a problem — an “emergent threat to many opt-in polls,” according to the Pew Research Center. At least one commercial bot product is currently available to participate in surveys and polls.

 

The Pew Research Center is careful to state that, although their findings indicate problems with some online polling, polling is not broken. But there are problems with some methods of online surveying that will only get worse.

 

We’ve been warned by many sources not to put any stock in the 2024 presidential polls this early in the game. That sounds like good advice. Plus, we should also pay more attention to the way polling data are collected if we want to have confidence in the results.

 

 

Jan Plotczyk spent 25 years as a survey and education statistician with the federal government, at the Census Bureau and the National Center for Education Statistics. She retired to Rock Hall.

 

Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By Friends of Megan Outten July 29, 2025
Megan Outten, a lifelong Wicomico County resident and former Salisbury City Councilwoman, officially announced her candidacy recently for Wicomico County Council, District 7. At 33, Outten brings the energy of a new generation combined with a proven record of public service and results-driven leadership. “I’m running because Wicomico deserves better,” Outten said. “Too often, our communities are expected to do more with less. We’re facing underfunded schools, limited economic opportunities, and years of neglected infrastructure. I believe Wicomico deserves leadership that listens, plans ahead, and delivers real, measurable results.” A Record of Action and A Vision for the Future On Salisbury’s City Council, Outten earned a reputation for her proactive, hands-on approach — working directly with residents to close infrastructure gaps, support first responders, and ensure everyday voices were heard. Now she’s bringing that same focus to the County Council, with priorities centered on affordability, public safety, and stronger, more resilient communities. Key Priorities for District 7: Fully fund public schools so every child has the opportunity to succeed. Fix aging infrastructure and county services through proactive investment. Keep Wicomico affordable with smarter planning and pathways to homeownership. Support first responders and safer neighborhoods through better tools, training, and prevention. Expand resources for seniors, youth, and underserved communities. Outten’s platform is rooted in real data and shaped by direct community engagement. With Wicomico now the fastest-growing school system on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — and 85% of students relying on extra resources — she points to the county’s lagging investment as a key area for action. “Strong schools lead to strong jobs, thriving industries, and healthier communities,” Outten said. “Our schools and infrastructure are at a tipping point. We need leadership that stops reacting after things break — and starts investing before they do.” A Commitment to Home and Service Born and raised in Wicomico, Megan Outten sees this campaign as a continuation of her lifelong service to her community. Her vision reflects what she’s hearing from neighbors across the county: a demand for fairness, opportunity, and accountability in local government. “Wicomico is my home; it’s where I grew up, built my life, and where I want to raise my family,” Outten said. “Our county is full of potential. We just need leaders who will listen, work hard, and get things done. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s exactly what I’ll continue to do on the County Council.” Outten will be meeting with residents across District 7 in the months ahead and unveiling more details of her platform. For more information or to get involved, contact info@meganoutten.com
By John Christie July 29, 2025
Way back in 1935, the Supreme Court determined that independent agencies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) do not violate the Constitution’s separation of powers. Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935). Congress provided that the CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, would operate as an independent agency — a multi-member, bipartisan commission whose members serve staggered terms and could be removed only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office but for no other cause.” Rejecting a claim that the removal restriction interferes with the “executive power,” the Humphrey’s Court held that Congress has the authority to “forbid their [members’] removal except for cause” when creating such “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial” bodies. As a result, these agencies have operated as independent agencies for many decades under many different presidencies. Shortly after assuming office in his second term, Donald Trump began to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of several of these agencies. The lower courts determined to reinstate the discharged members pending the ultimate outcome of the litigation, relying on Humphrey’s , resulting in yet another emergency appeal to the Supreme Court by the administration. In the first such case, a majority of the Court allowed President Trump to discharge the Democratic members of the NLRB and the MSPB while the litigation over the legality of the discharges continued. Trump v. Wilcox (May 22, 2025). The majority claimed that they do not now decide whether Humphrey’s should be overruled because “that question is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument.” However, hinting that these agency members have “considerable” executive power and suggesting that “the Government” faces greater “risk of harm” from an order allowing a removed officer to continue exercising the executive power than a wrongfully removed officer faces from being unable to perform her statutory duty,” the majority gave the President the green light to proceed. Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, dissented, asserting that Humphrey’s remains good law until overturned and forecloses both the President’s firings and the Court’s decision to award emergency relief.” Our emergency docket, while fit for some things, should not be used to “overrule or revise existing law.” Moreover, the dissenters contend that the majority’s effort to explain their decision “hardly rises to the occasion.” Maybe by saying that the Commissioners exercise “considerable” executive power, the majority is suggesting that Humphrey’s is no longer good law but if that is what the majority means, then it has foretold a “massive change” in the law and done so on the emergency docket, “with little time, scant briefing, and no argument.” And, the “greater risk of harm” in fact is that Congress provided for these discharged members to serve their full terms, protected from a President’s desire to substitute his political allies. More recently, in the latest shadow docket ruling in the administration’s favor, the same majority of the Court again permitted President Trump to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of another independent agency, this time the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Trump v. Boyle (July 23, 2025). The same three justices dissented, once more objecting to the use of the Court’s emergency docket to destroy the independence of an independent agency as established by Congress. The CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, was designed to operate as “a classic independent agency.” In Congress’s view, that structure would better enable the CPSC to achieve its mission — ensuring the safety of consumer products, from toys to appliances — than would a single-party agency under the full control of a single President. “By allowing the President to remove Commissioners for no reason other than their party affiliation, the majority has negated Congress’s choice of agency bipartisanship and independence.” The dissenters also assert that the majority’s sole professed basis for the more recent order in Boyle was its prior order in Wilcox . But in their opinion, Wilcox itself was minimally explained. So, the dissenters claim, the majority rejects the design of Congress for a whole class of agencies by “layering nothing on nothing.” “Next time, though, the majority will have two (if still under-reasoned) orders to cite. Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States (2006). * ***** *In Rapanos , in a footnote to his plurality opinion, former Supreme Court Justice Scalia explained that this allusion is to a classic story told in different forms and attributed to various authors. His favorite version: An Eastern guru affirms that the earth is supported on the back of a tiger. When asked what supports the tiger, he says it stands upon an elephant; and when asked what supports the elephant, he says it is a giant turtle. When asked, finally, what supports the giant turtle, he is briefly taken aback, but quickly replies "Ah, after that it is turtles all the way down." John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Shore Progress, Progessive Maryland, Progressive Harford Co July 15, 2025
Marylanders will not forget this vote.
Protest against Trumpcare, 2017
By Jan Plotczyk July 9, 2025
More than 30,000 of our neighbors in Maryland’s first congressional district will lose their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid because of provisions in the GOP’s heartless tax cut and spending bill passed last week.
Farm in Dorchester Co.
By Michael Chameides, Barn Raiser May 21, 2025
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
By Catlin Nchako, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities May 21, 2025
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
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