Unemployment Update — May Data
Jan Plotczyk • June 9, 2020
According to a recent announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. economy is in recession — a recession with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions, due to the pandemic and public health response, but a recession nonetheless.
Usually, a recession involves “a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months,” and it takes six to 18 months to make a determination. In this case, the committee responsible for this assessment considered the depth, duration, and extent of the economic contraction, and determined that “the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.”
Will it be briefer? Committee members claim this statement is not a prediction, but there are two pieces of jobs data that can give hope for an improving economic picture, even if the covid-19 unemployment crisis is not yet over.
First, initial claims for unemployment have declined for the last four weeks in Maryland and in the counties on the Eastern Shore. (A spike in early May was due to claims submitted under two new federal covid-19 relief programs that expanded eligibility for benefits.)
On the Eastern Shore for the week ending May 30, a total of 2,403 new claims were filed — three times as many as the last pre-pandemic week in mid-March, but only one-third of the 7,500 claims filed for the week ending April 4.
New unemployment claims filed in Maryland for the week ending May 30 totaled 43,095. However, to get some perspective on the total picture, let’s look at the week ending May 16. For that week, 51,108 initial claims were filed, and 255,017 continued claims were filed, which together give a more comprehensive picture of unemployment in the state.
As bad as the numbers still are, they continue to improve — an indication of an upturn as the governor’s Roadmap to Recovery from the pandemic is put into action. Businesses began reopening as phase 1 was implemented in mid-May and some workers were able to return to work. We can expect to see continued improvement in the unemployment picture as phase 2 kicks in on June 5, with an expanded list of non-essential businesses allowed to operate and needing employees.
Next, there were two surprises about the release of the nationwide unemployment rate for May. The first was that the reported rate decreased from 14.7 percent in April to 13.3 percent in May, shocking economists (who had predicted 20 percent) and signaling a quicker recovery than anticipated. Still, The New York Times characterized the drop as “From Worst to Second Worst” on their front page for June 6.
The second surprise was that the reported rates are incorrect. A misclassification error (notice of which was hidden in a methodology note) resulted in an understatement of the unemployment rate by 3 percent, making the actual May rate 16.3 percent and the actual April rate about 19.7 percent, using the same methodology. The White House crowed about the 13.3 percent, but has been mum about the corrected calculations. The same error was made in the March reported rate. (The mistake: employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.)
Rates and errors aside, the country gained 2.5 million jobs in May, after losing a record 20.7 million jobs in April. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality (especially food services and drinking places), construction, education and health services, and retail trade. In contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply,” signaling that states and local governments are being forced to lay off employees and cut services due to lost revenue from the pandemic; the federal government has not allocated any relief funds to states and local governments.
And, 30 million workers are still collecting unemployment benefits.
The economic picture in the country does show improvement, but the danger at this point is that GOP lawmakers will see the flawed 13.3 percent unemployment rate as an indication that no further federal relief legislation is necessary. But the country is not back to normal. Tens of millions of Americans are still out of work, millions of small businesses are still struggling, some industries are open under severe restrictions or not at all, and state and local governments need help. Many Americans have not yet decided if it’s safe to resume normal activities, which could put a continued damper on improvement in the economy. More help is needed, and sooner rather than later.
Note: The data for initial unemployment claims in the Eastern Shore counties for the last 12 weeks are seasonally adjusted, to remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns (weather, harvests, holidays, school schedules) and reveal the month-to-month changes due to coronavirus disruption. These data include the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims as well as regular state unemployment claims. The data for the national unemployment rate are seasonally adjusted.
Common Sense for the Eastern Shore
Megan Outten, a lifelong Wicomico County resident and former Salisbury City Councilwoman, officially announced her candidacy recently for Wicomico County Council, District 7. At 33, Outten brings the energy of a new generation combined with a proven record of public service and results-driven leadership. “I’m running because Wicomico deserves better,” Outten said. “Too often, our communities are expected to do more with less. We’re facing underfunded schools, limited economic opportunities, and years of neglected infrastructure. I believe Wicomico deserves leadership that listens, plans ahead, and delivers real, measurable results.” A Record of Action and A Vision for the Future On Salisbury’s City Council, Outten earned a reputation for her proactive, hands-on approach — working directly with residents to close infrastructure gaps, support first responders, and ensure everyday voices were heard. Now she’s bringing that same focus to the County Council, with priorities centered on affordability, public safety, and stronger, more resilient communities. Key Priorities for District 7: Fully fund public schools so every child has the opportunity to succeed. Fix aging infrastructure and county services through proactive investment. Keep Wicomico affordable with smarter planning and pathways to homeownership. Support first responders and safer neighborhoods through better tools, training, and prevention. Expand resources for seniors, youth, and underserved communities. Outten’s platform is rooted in real data and shaped by direct community engagement. With Wicomico now the fastest-growing school system on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — and 85% of students relying on extra resources — she points to the county’s lagging investment as a key area for action. “Strong schools lead to strong jobs, thriving industries, and healthier communities,” Outten said. “Our schools and infrastructure are at a tipping point. We need leadership that stops reacting after things break — and starts investing before they do.” A Commitment to Home and Service Born and raised in Wicomico, Megan Outten sees this campaign as a continuation of her lifelong service to her community. Her vision reflects what she’s hearing from neighbors across the county: a demand for fairness, opportunity, and accountability in local government. “Wicomico is my home; it’s where I grew up, built my life, and where I want to raise my family,” Outten said. “Our county is full of potential. We just need leaders who will listen, work hard, and get things done. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s exactly what I’ll continue to do on the County Council.” Outten will be meeting with residents across District 7 in the months ahead and unveiling more details of her platform. For more information or to get involved, contact info@meganoutten.com
Way back in 1935, the Supreme Court determined that independent agencies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) do not violate the Constitution’s separation of powers. Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935). Congress provided that the CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, would operate as an independent agency — a multi-member, bipartisan commission whose members serve staggered terms and could be removed only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office but for no other cause.” Rejecting a claim that the removal restriction interferes with the “executive power,” the Humphrey’s Court held that Congress has the authority to “forbid their [members’] removal except for cause” when creating such “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial” bodies. As a result, these agencies have operated as independent agencies for many decades under many different presidencies. Shortly after assuming office in his second term, Donald Trump began to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of several of these agencies. The lower courts determined to reinstate the discharged members pending the ultimate outcome of the litigation, relying on Humphrey’s , resulting in yet another emergency appeal to the Supreme Court by the administration. In the first such case, a majority of the Court allowed President Trump to discharge the Democratic members of the NLRB and the MSPB while the litigation over the legality of the discharges continued. Trump v. Wilcox (May 22, 2025). The majority claimed that they do not now decide whether Humphrey’s should be overruled because “that question is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument.” However, hinting that these agency members have “considerable” executive power and suggesting that “the Government” faces greater “risk of harm” from an order allowing a removed officer to continue exercising the executive power than a wrongfully removed officer faces from being unable to perform her statutory duty,” the majority gave the President the green light to proceed. Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, dissented, asserting that Humphrey’s remains good law until overturned and forecloses both the President’s firings and the Court’s decision to award emergency relief.” Our emergency docket, while fit for some things, should not be used to “overrule or revise existing law.” Moreover, the dissenters contend that the majority’s effort to explain their decision “hardly rises to the occasion.” Maybe by saying that the Commissioners exercise “considerable” executive power, the majority is suggesting that Humphrey’s is no longer good law but if that is what the majority means, then it has foretold a “massive change” in the law and done so on the emergency docket, “with little time, scant briefing, and no argument.” And, the “greater risk of harm” in fact is that Congress provided for these discharged members to serve their full terms, protected from a President’s desire to substitute his political allies. More recently, in the latest shadow docket ruling in the administration’s favor, the same majority of the Court again permitted President Trump to fire, without cause, the Democratic members of another independent agency, this time the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Trump v. Boyle (July 23, 2025). The same three justices dissented, once more objecting to the use of the Court’s emergency docket to destroy the independence of an independent agency as established by Congress. The CPSC, like the NLRB and MSPB, was designed to operate as “a classic independent agency.” In Congress’s view, that structure would better enable the CPSC to achieve its mission — ensuring the safety of consumer products, from toys to appliances — than would a single-party agency under the full control of a single President. “By allowing the President to remove Commissioners for no reason other than their party affiliation, the majority has negated Congress’s choice of agency bipartisanship and independence.” The dissenters also assert that the majority’s sole professed basis for the more recent order in Boyle was its prior order in Wilcox . But in their opinion, Wilcox itself was minimally explained. So, the dissenters claim, the majority rejects the design of Congress for a whole class of agencies by “layering nothing on nothing.” “Next time, though, the majority will have two (if still under-reasoned) orders to cite. Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States (2006). * ***** *In Rapanos , in a footnote to his plurality opinion, former Supreme Court Justice Scalia explained that this allusion is to a classic story told in different forms and attributed to various authors. His favorite version: An Eastern guru affirms that the earth is supported on the back of a tiger. When asked what supports the tiger, he says it stands upon an elephant; and when asked what supports the elephant, he says it is a giant turtle. When asked, finally, what supports the giant turtle, he is briefly taken aback, but quickly replies "Ah, after that it is turtles all the way down." John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
Marylanders will not forget this vote.
More than 30,000 of our neighbors in Maryland’s first congressional district will lose their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid because of provisions in the GOP’s heartless tax cut and spending bill passed last week.
Right now, Congress is working on a fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs in order to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
The House Agriculture Committee recently voted, along party lines, to advance legislation that would cut as much as $300 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is the nation’s most important anti-hunger program, helping more than 41 million people in the U.S. pay for food. With potential cuts this large, it helps to know who benefits from this program in Maryland, and who would lose this assistance. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities compiled data on SNAP beneficiaries by congressional district, cited below, and produced the Maryland state datasheet , shown below. In Maryland, in 2023-24, 1 in 9 people lived in a household with SNAP benefits. In Maryland’s First Congressional District, in 2023-24: Almost 34,000 households used SNAP benefits. Of those households, 43% had at least one senior (over age 60). 29% of SNAP recipients were people of color. 15% were Black, non-Hispanic, higher than 11.8% nationally. 6% were Hispanic (19.4% nationally). There were 24,700 total veterans (ages 18-64). Of those, 2,200 lived in households that used SNAP benefits (9%). The CBPP SNAP datasheet for Maryland is below. See data from all the states and download factsheets here.
