2020 Census: Potential Problems and Repercussions

Thomas Timberman • April 4, 2018

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First It’s Constitutional:

The U.S. Constitution describes many responsibilities, procedures and qualifications in defining America’s unique representative democracy, its three co-equal branches of government, and the underlying theory of checks and balances among them.

However, the Constitution’s first mandate and precondition for much that follows is found in Article I, Section 2 as later changed by the XIV Amendment, Section 2: “Representatives (House of) shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State excluding Indians not taxed. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years of the first meeting of Congress…and within every subsequent term of ten years in such manner as they may by Law direct.” (Note: “Enumeration” = Census)

Second, It’s Extremely Important:

“Demos” as in democracy is ancient Greek for people, the foundation of America’s form of government. The 2020 Census will count the number of people in each state, county, city and incorporated town in the United States. That number and its composition (ethnicity, point of origin), will determine:


  • boundaries of congressional districts,
  • number of each state’s electoral votes and
  • correct application of Civil Rights Laws including the Voting Rights and Fair Housing Acts in your state.

Essentially, if you are omitted or not accurately counted in the 2020 Census, you don’t exist and your state will not receive the appropriate allocation of Federal funding ($675 billion/year).

Third, What’s the Problem?

Money : The Census Bureau of the Federal Department of Commerce is charged with designing the decennial census, preparing, testing, staffing and managing it. Normally, the Congress begins front-end loading Bureau funds three years before the census. However, in 2017 a Continuing Resolution – not a budget – was passed, keeping the Bureau’s funding at 2016 levels. In the past, the Bureau’s budget normally doubled between a year ending in 7 and 8. In 2010, the Bureau had some 500 field offices, 550,000 staff across the US at a total cost of $13 billion.

The March 2018 Omnibus Spending Bill included $2.5 billion for the 2020 Census, representing $1 billion more than the Administration requested. Because of the loss of funding for the intervening 9 months, the Bureau was unable to staff and carry out its traditional national test of integrating 40-odd IT systems, cyber-security, and the anticipated low response rates. Instead, one test was started in a single state.

Content Design: Four years ago, the Bureau decided it needed to improve how it collected racial information. The decision reached was to combine race and ethnicity questions into one and add two new categories: (1) Middle East/North African origin and (2) Hispanic. The current administration rejected this new formulation and returned to the previous racial categories: (1) White, (2) Black, (3) Asian, (4) Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander, (5) American Indian or (6) Some Other Race. Problem: it left out the estimated 57 million of Hispanic origin.

And then on March 26, 2018, the Justice Department introduced an old question, not used for the past 68 years: what is your citizenship? It is anticipated that this will cause a serious under-count among undocumented or permanent resident aliens (Green Card holders), particularly Hispanics and those from the Middle East.


Current Situation: Eleven states, with more expected, are suing the Administration fearing that a misrepresentation of the number of people resident within their borders will cost them Federal funding, but not reduce the service requirements of their actual populations.

Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

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